Live model · Race calls
How Election Calls Actually Work
A race is called once the candidate ahead can't be caught, before every vote is in. The AP estimates how many ballots are still out and asks whether the trailing candidate could close the gap even if those ballots broke their way. Mail and Election Day ballots lean differently and are counted at different times, so leads can flip.
Counting a race, batch by batch
- CH1 Gold
- CH2 Magenta
How to read the stage
The solid line is Gold's margin after each batch, against the share of the expected vote counted. Election Day ballots report first and lean Gold, who leads by 92,400 at 59%. Then mail, which leans Magenta: the lead flips at 83%. The gold and magenta dashed lines are each side's best case if the rest broke their way. The call for Magenta comes at 94%, once Gold's best case falls below zero.
The rule: no way back
After each batch, the model takes the trailing candidate's best share so far in each kind of ballot, adds a 10-point safety margin, and applies it to every ballot still out. At 94%, Magenta leads by 15,900 with 62,500 ballots left; even at that generous split Gold would trail by 7,700. Where a recount can be requested, the AP also won't call a race within half a point. Try Too close to call.
Why leads flip after Election Night
Pennsylvania law kept officials from processing mail ballots until Election Day in 2020, so mail was counted late. Trump led early by about 675,000 votes; Biden won roughly 75% of the mail ballots counted afterward. The AP called the state on Saturday, November 7, with Biden ahead by 34,243 and about 62,000 mail ballots left. The parties' gap in mail voting has since shrunk, from nearly 30 points in 2020 to 12 in 2022.
What the model leaves out
Here the expected vote is exact. Real estimates come from past turnout, population, registration and early-vote data, and can be revised during the night. Real desks also use AP VoteCast, a survey of voters, to confirm winners of lopsided races as polls close. Provisional ballots, late mail and recounts aren't modeled, and the 10-point safety margin is the model's, not a published AP number.
Questions
- Are race calls official results?
- No. A call is a news organization's judgment, made before results are official. Local election officials count and verify ballots through the canvass and certification, which can take weeks. The AP, which has declared winners since 1848, says it only declares a winner when it's certain that the candidate who's ahead in the count can't be caught.
- Why wait when one candidate is far ahead?
- Because the ballots still out can lean the other way. On the stage Gold leads by 92,400 with 59% counted, but none of the 425,000 mail ballots are in. Until some are, the model can't rule out that they break heavily for Magenta, and they do: Magenta wins by 20,200.
- What does “percent of expected vote” mean?
- It's the share of the AP's estimate of all ballots that will be cast, built from past turnout, population changes, registration and how competitive the race is, then updated with turnout reports and returns. It replaced precincts reporting, which grew misleading as states handled mail and early ballots differently. If officials revise turnout up, the share counted can drop before it climbs again.
- How can a race be called with almost no votes counted?
- Where a party has a history of consistent and convincing wins, the AP treats a race as eligible to be called as soon as polls close, and uses AP VoteCast, its survey of voters, to confirm the winner. It never calls a race before all the polls in it have closed. This model calls only from counted ballots.